The run up to the 2011 Egyptian presidential elections will be a crucial period for Egypt's political future. There is the potential for real change but the indications are that the key figures will once again cynically use religious sentiments to win legitimacy. If ElBaradei is serious about reforming Egypt's political culture, he must avoid this strategy.
Turkey's increasingly confrontational policy towards the West does not have just ideological roots but business ones too. Turkey’s diversification of diplomatic relations, and the economic ties it has been developing with several Middle Eastern countries, allows it to move away from its traditionally pro-Western foreign policy.
Turkey should take great care to retain the international sympathy that has been accumulating since 2003 with its “step ahead” policy in solving Cyprus. Recently, Turkey’s focus on Gaza, Israel and Iran’s nuclear program has led it to overlook the Cyprus issue that matters greatly to the EU, the platform from which Turkey has been able to achieve so much in the region in recent years.
Saudi Liberals, one of the two competing factions in Saudi society, remain an understudied group. The term liberal is relatively new in Saudi parlance, although there had been earlier occurrences of secular activism in Saudi Arabia. The liberal movement was born in opposition to the Sahwa movement and, for years, it had no clear project of its own. In the early 2000s, a split occurred between what can be referred to as social liberals and political liberals. Today, although claiming to speak for a “silent majority,” these liberal voices continue to represent an elite group with no strong connections to society.
Recent proposals to guarantee oil supplies to China in exchange for its cooperation in confronting Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons program betray the emergence of China as a central issue in Gulf Security. Regardless of whether these proposals are adopted, they mark a turning point in China’s rise. The question now is: will Beijing become a constructive player in Gulf security or will it only pursue its narrow energy interests?