Turkey’s importance in the Middle East is growing, both at the economic level—its economy is already more than half the size of the whole of the Middle East and North African region—but also politically. With EU membership still in sight, Turkey is using the same ideas that brought stability to post-Second World War Europe in an effort to calm the bitter divisions of the Middle East.
In the face of a deteriorating situation in Yemen, Washington has been abuzz with talk about what should be done by the US government. A traditional package of assistance from the US, whether it is training Yemeni special forces or large-scale economic assistance will achieve nothing in the short-term. Washington’s investment should be in shaping and coordinating the actions of the GCC to assist Yemen.
The 28 January London conference on Afghanistan emphasized the transition to local responsibility in promoting the country’s security and development. Afghan leaders are eager to assume these responsibilities, but their foreign allies are even more eager to devolve them. The problem is that Afghan capacity remains insufficiently developed to manage national challenges without extensive international support.
Al-Qaeda’s travelling ideology reflects the gradual transformation from a highly centralized organization in the 1990s in Afghanistan, into a fluid, globalized, all-encompassing ideological umbrella. This transnational ideology bridged the divide between class, space, and recruitment techniques. However, al-Qaeda’s bottom-up recruitment, largely through the internet, is a marginal phenomenon, and one that exposes the structural crisis of al-Qaeda Central.
While before the presidential elections it appeared that Khamenei would remain Supreme Leader for life, his fate is far less certain today, and he is openly defied by reformist leaders, faces dissent from top ayatollahs, and is contested in public demonstrations. Despite the damage to his reputation, Khamenei’s vast and potent network remains for the moment intact, and his future rests largely in the hands of the Revolutionary Guards.