More sanctions to come as “psychological war” around Iran steps up

Saber rattling and the diplomatic tit for tat in the past few days are intrinsically related to Washington’s efforts to impose more sanctions on Tehran by March. But does this mean the region is gearing up for a fight, as many pundits argue?

Quite the opposite, actually. Iranians and Americans, and a myriad of other military powers including Gulf countries, China, Europe, and Russia, are playing for time. The main goal—shared by all with the exception of Israel—is to give diplomacy more time to work, even if that means sanctions.

Consider the recent poker game: the US publically boasts its defensive naval build-up surrounding Iran with deployments of a US missile interceptor fleet and of upgraded and more precise Patriot missiles batteries stationed in Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.

Iran sees the bet and launches animals into orbit, that is, a non-military use of technology that can be adapted to intercontinental missiles. Washington calls the bluff and says the act is a provocation that should trigger more muscular sanctions.

Both sides meanwhile test-fire missiles and missile interceptor technology, ahead of a Munich security meeting over the weekend where world diplomats debated sanctions.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad switches rhetoric and suddenly says Iran is close to a deal over its nuclear enrichment program, and Western powers again call the bluff and say there is no such thing in the horizon.

Ahmadinejad doubles up by ordering nuclear scientists to enrich uranium up to 20 percent (at least 80 percent is required for nuclear weapons) and opening 10 more enrichment plants around the country, accompanied by a beefed up air defense system. The response from the West is obvious: sanctions must come now.

But all this is precisely to avert war. To begin with, the defensive build-up in the Gulf is not new, as Iran said so itself. The headlines were fed to an American and Israeli public. The message is that Iran’s offensive missile capabilities have been contained and that there is still time for diplomacy.

Iran is also playing for time. It has significantly improved its defensive capabilities in the past few years, at the expense of its offensive ones. By now most agree its nuclear program would survive any Israeli and US strike, baring a nuclear one.

The reason is that its best deterrent is its nuclear program. Tehran wants to show the world—especially Israel—it could build a nuclear bomb, without actually doing so. Already militarily surrounded, that ability is a better safeguard than any other weapon.

Surely sanctions will come, although unilateral and ineffective without China onboard. Iran will continue to fight it out diplomatically. But the end game is to disengage Israel. Too much is at stake for all to risk a regional war.

And this is just one deal of the cards. Expect more. The outcome is in the entire game that will be played out throughout this year.