Potential for peace in Yemen after truce deal with the Houthis

After six years of non-stop military confrontation between the Yemeni government and the Shiite rebels, the Yemeni President declared that a truce agreement was reached between the conflicting parties. The Yemeni government has previously rejected numerous truce initiatives by the rebels, because they didn't include a promise of ending hostilities against Saudi Arabia, which was drawn into the conflict. Consequently the Yemeni government gave the rebels a deadline in which they should implement the ceasefire terms, which eventually led to the resolution of the deadlock.  

In addition to pledging not to attack Saudi Arabia, the rebels have agreed to withdraw from official buildings, abandon military posts in the mountains and reopen the roads they have previously blocked. The Yemeni government has also demanded that the rebels return the weapons seized from security services, in addition to freeing all military and civilian prisoners, including Saudis.

In return, the Houthis have been added to the committee that will oversee the implementation of the peace agreement in order to ensure accountability of the mission. In that sense, Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh, has met with the committee to ensure that implementation of the conditions put by his government.

Following the declaration, Mohammed al Haweri, chief of the borderline committee has announced that the Houthis have achieved 70 per cent of the implementation of the first condition pertaining to their withdrawal from Yemeni territories and official buildings. "The Houthis have to implement the six conditions” Mohammed al Haweri added.

Notwithstanding the apparent breakthrough in the Yemeni government's relation with the rebels, doubt and speculation loom in the peninsula. On the surface the rebels may seem to have finally given in to the Yemeni demands because of simple military defeat. Upon further scrutiny however, it can be concluded that the new status quo is but a temporary transition due to the change in the political rules of the game in the region.

The Houthis have been overpowered amidst fighting on both the Saudi and the Yemeni fronts. This implies that the truce could be nothing more than a warrior's rest and not a complete abandonment of the cause. Furthermore, the Houthis have created an air of ambiguity surrounding their sincerity in implementing the "Sixth Condition" of the agreement that binds them to refraining from attacking Saudi Arabia.

 Accordingly the crisis would unquestionably be brought back to square one, if the rebels are to reengage with Saudi Arabia, which is exerting massive efforts to create a rebel free zone on the Saudi-Yemeni borders.

Thus, as Sa'ada and its sister districts stop to catch their breath, the rebels may also be doing the same. This in turn calls for Saudi and Yemeni cautious eyes, for fear of reigniting the dormant flame of war.