The Keys to Change

Vali Nasr

Free Press 2009

The relationship between the West and the Middle East is one filled with numerous tensions to say the least. Nowhere has Huntington’s call of a clash between civilizations seemed to resonate more than between the diplomatic comings and goings of Western liberal countries and their reputedly less-liberal Middle Eastern counterparts. Vali Nasr’s latest book, Forces of Fortune, takes a look at the underlying opportunities that are present in the region which could encourage a new and improved relationship between the Middle East and the West.

Nasr, following Hume, argues that the force of change within the Muslim world is found in the business-minded middle class. This group, he maintains, is key for future engagement with the West, as their growing economic power will put them in an important position to decide the future political inclinations of their native countries. ‘It is time’ Nasr notes ‘to think less about civilizations clashing and to recover the great insights… about the transformative power of markets and commerce…’ Citing Hume he states ‘Commerce… softens manners and makes a politics based on reason and deliberation, rather than fighting and romanticism far more imaginable’ (27).

In describing the growing power of the middle class in the region, Nasr focuses particularly on how Iran could stand to benefit from this phenomenon. Iran is a particularly interesting case study, as it is one of the most influential countries in the region, and has the capital necessary to promote its interests. However Nasr notes there is one fundamental difference between Iran and the emerging powers of the day. The recent emergence of new powers, like the BRICS, has had very little to do with hard power—military capabilities that is. Rather, these countries are ‘economic stars;’ recognizable drivers of growth in neighbouring regions. Unlike these emerging powers, however, Iran has closed itself off from the world economy—a fact that seriously hinders its great power ambitions.

Particularly illustrative of this point, is one of Nasr’s many insightful observations, as he compares the different avenues that India and Pakistan have followed since attaining nuclear capability. Despite their parity in this regard, only one of them has emerged as a regional power. The lesson to be learned therefore is that Iran should focus less on developing a nuclear program, and more on engaging in the world market if its true ambition is to extend its influence.

Iran’s economic influence in the region is severely hampered by the fact that it is the 151 most isolated country in the world, out of a list of 160, and the sixteenth most isolated in the Middle East, out of a list of seventeen. Nasr’s message is explicit to Iran and the West, as both stand to gain much from seeing Iran seriously engage its resources in the world economy. Such a strategy would boost Iran’s influence, and its economic reform would trigger the type of political “softening” Hume predicted.

Although Nasr’ s analysis of the important weight that economic trends have on the politics of the Middle East, his assumption that political reform follows economic reform is not clear. While he uses the case of China to support his conclusion, arguing that since China has opened its economy it has implemented some political reform. The question that should have been addressed by Nasr is whether political reform in China was sufficient to support the conjecture that economic liberalization is necessarily followed by political liberalization. While there must undoubtedly be some sort of time lag between the political reform that is initiated by the rise of a powerful middle class, the evidence in favour of the bourgeoise-equals-democracy formula is found wanting.

Another important question raised by the relationship Nasr defines between political liberalization and economic success is how the financial crisis might affect the ability of the economy of the Arab world to encourage reform. After all, Nasr is explicit about the important role that the rising power of the middle class has in encouraging change. Yet after 2008, one must assess whether the middle class in the region continues to thrive. While the Middle East was purportedly less hard hit by the crisis than Europe and the US, it was still affected.

The IMF, for one, claimed in October that the crisis had slowed down economic growth, and despite improvements growth would remain relatively subdued. The impact of the economy on political reform thus presents various questions for the potential warming up of relations between the Middle East and the West, such as, would a reverse trend in the economy promote the more isolationist tendencies of the region and thus reduce the likelihood of a rapprochement with the West? If this is the case than is economic reform truly an ideal means for the West to assess the regional influence of countries in the Middle East, and more over, use this measure as a means to organize their foreign policy in the region?

On the other hand, the attention Nasr pays to Iran in Forces of Fortune is commendable if only for his ability to accurately portray the country’s importance in the region. Arguing that Iran changed the political make-up of the region in 1979 and could do the same again, gives important weight to the recommendations he puts forth. Furthermore, his ability to underscore the importance of Western rapprochement with Iran, highlighting that Western interests are in ‘seeing Iran line up with, not against, the logic of economic change’ (25) point once again to Iran’s ability to amplify a similar trend throughout the Arab world.

Filled with anecdotes from visits to the region, and complemented with concrete statistical evidence, Nasr is able to paint a clear picture of the situation in the Middle East today. In addition to his original theory highlighting the way in which Iran’s economic engagement could symbolize a turn-around in the politics of the region, Nasr also takes time to address misconceptions the West has about the Middle East. From secularism to fundamentalism, Nasr’s work is complete in covering the potential avenues for change in the region and thus makes a strong case for the idea that economics has much to do with the political developments of the Arab world.