The Arab world is not heading towards its End of History

The idea that the current popular uprising in the Middle East is driving the Arab world towards its own End of History is gaining a few followers.

Was Francis Fukuyama right? In his 1989 article in The National Interest, transformed into the 1992 book The End of History and the Last Man, Fukuyama made the case that Liberal democracy would be the end of point in what concerns mankind’s forms of government. Although Fukuyama captured efficiently a moment of recent history—the end of the Cold War and the triumph of the liberal democracy and capitalism over the communist dictatorship and state-centred economy—his thesis is a rather gross over-simplification of a more complex reality.

It is not only Hugo Chavez who thinks Fukuyama is wrong. The undemocratic ways of most of the African continent, the failure of Russia to endorse democracy, or the rise of global jihadism are just a few stark reminders of how some nations, peoples and groups will always reject a universal form of government.

It remains tough to ascertain what precisely the motive behind the uprising of the Arab street is. Whether it is unemployment, “bread and butter,” corruption fatigue, or the absence of political representation, in fact all of these factors seem to be playing a role in driving the Arabs to the street.

What then drives a popular revolution? What motivates people from extremely diverse backgrounds and with very different political visions to unite efforts to topple a regime? Certainly, the general ambition of a better alternative to a given state of affairs, coupled with a combination of circumstances that allow the revolutionary movement to gather momentum, plus a particular event that triggers the storm.

In the current Arab uprising, from Bahrain to Morocco, there is all of the above. A youth disheartened with its own prospects, and a combination of circumstances—including an economic and financial crisis, as well as a moment—Mohammed Bouazizi’s self-immolation on 17 December 2010—that triggered the storm.

The youth-technology duo has certainly proved decisive in the current uprisings. In the Arab world, 60% of the population is under the age of 25. What is more, not only is the access to technology easier today, the Arab youth is also particularly keen about the new media when compared to youth groups of other regions of the globe. As a consequence, the young Arabs know all too well that there are better alternatives to what they had or have in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, and beyond. The Arab youth does not need to go too far, take Turkey for example, to see a living proof of the benefits of democratic government, as well as the generally peaceful coexistence between Islam and democratic politics.

While it seems certain that nothing will be the same in the Arab world after the current uprisings, its outcome is still very much uncertain. Yes Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain and even Yemen can be heading to more democratic forms of government in the near future, but recent developments in Libya show that one should wait and see before claiming that the Arab world has reached its End of History.

By Manuel Almeida

Published: Monday 21 March 2011 Updated: Monday 21 March 2011