Saudi Arabia Inflation Report

October 2011 – Jadwa

Today Riyadh-based Jadwa Investment circulated its monthly Inflation Report which noted the October year-on-year rate of inflation dipped to 5.2 percent in October from 5.3 percent in September. Jadwa said the decrease could be attributed to lower food price inflation in Saudi Arabia which reflected the global year-on-year rate dropping from 33 percent in July to 6 percent in October, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. The short term variations are not necessarily indicators of inflation trends, according to Riyadh Capital’s Khan H. Zahid, who told Arab News, “Month-to-month changes in inflation, especially at this time of the year, are due to seasonal factors, and need to be interpreted with caution. The small drop in October to 5.2 percent may simply be the post-Ramadan effect of prices slowing down.”

The Jadwa report provides analysis of inflation stats and trends.  It is provided here for your consideration.  We thank Mr. Paul Gamble and Mr. Brad Bourland, Head of Research and Chief Economist respectively for sharing this report here.

[Click here for original report with insightful graphs]

Jadwa Inflation Report – October 2011

Year-on-year inflation dipped to 5.2 percent in October from 5.3 percent in September owing to lower food price inflation. Rents rose again and other components were influenced by one-time changes.

Food price inflation fell to its lowest level since January 2010 in October. This was the result of the rapid drop in global food price inflation; according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, year-on-year global food price inflation dropped to 6 percent in
October from 33 percent in July (see chart on next page). With food accounting for the largest proportion of the cost of living index (26 percent), this slowdown was sufficient to lower headline inflation even though inflation in most other areas rose.

Inflation for “other goods and services” reached a three-year high owing mainly to jewelry prices, which were 31 percent higher than in October 2010. Jewelry prices are driven by the price of gold. Rental inflation continued to rise and at 8 percent was the highest since March. Bonuses for government workers and pay rises appear to have pushed up demand for property at a time when new supply continues to remain modest.

Inflation for education and entertainment hit its highest level since at least 2003. This was due to higher school fees. Fees for the new school year are always incorporated in the October data. Similarly, annual adjustments (for the cost of domestic staff) caused the jump in inflation for home furniture.

Monthly inflation dropped to 0.5 percent in October. Food prices were flat and “other expanses and services” inflation eased after the sharp rise in September caused by a surge in jewelry prices. There were notable jumps in the prices of home furniture and education and entertainment. In both cases these reflected the annual measurement of some components. For education, October is the month that fees for the new school year are included in the inflation data. Kindergarten and pre-school fees were up by 12.3 percent and primary, intermediate and secondary education fees up by 1.8 percent, 2.6 percent and 10.7 percent, respectively. The monthly jump in the price of education was the highest on record and reflected the pay rise awarded to teachers several months ago. For home furniture, the jump is the result of higher costs of domestic labor, which are also measured in October of each year.

About Jadwa Investment – Jadwa Investment is a Saudi Closed Joint Stock company operating under the supervision of the Saudi Arabian Capital Markets Authority (CMA). Under the CMA decision published on August 21, 2006, Jadwa was awarded a license to offer all types of investment services including dealing, managing, custody, arranging and advising. All investment services offered by Jadwa Investment are supervised by a Shariah Supervisory Board and are fully Shariah-compliant.