Hope for Afghanistan

Hearts and Minds

With the release of a statement this week announcing their plans to set up a political office, the Taliban created hopes for peace in a country long marred by conflict.  Following ten years of fighting, the possibility that the Taliban is seriously considering negotiations for peace is an important step that could possibly alter the future of the country.

The Taliban reported on their website “Voice of Jihad” that “[they] are now prepared, while having a strong presence in Afghanistan, to have a political office for negotiations.” In addition to announcing their intention of setting up a political office in Qatar, the Taliban also demanded that the remaining Taliban members under US custody in Guantanamo Bay be released.

The turnaround on their policy to avoid negotiations has been received warmly by the international community, namely the United States which has been pushing for talks for years. Indeed the international community has been promoting the office as a means to allow Afghan and Western negotiations to openly contact legitimate intermediaries. This is an important motivator behind the US’s support for the political office, as the country has had problems in the past identifying whether intermediaries were official representatives of the organization, and as such in a position to negotiate.

Given the complications around a negotiated resolution to the Afghan conflict, it is unsurprising that the hopefulness surrounding the prospects of negotiations is mitigated by an understanding that negotiations may not be successful, and even some question the genuine commitment the Taliban has to peace in the first place. After all, the Taliban did not give a timeline for the creation of a political office.

Distrust surrounding negotiations should come as no surprise considering that the international community had been disappointed by similar attempts in the past.  Preliminary talks began between high ranking members of the organization and Karzai’s government, but these did not result in any tangible gains for peace. A few months ago however, the prospects for negotiated peace in the country received their most serious blow when the leader of Afghanistan’s Peace Council and former President, Burhanuddi Rabbani, was assassinated.

Moreover, the Taliban has made little efforts to curb violence in the region, even as they announce their intentions to cooperate in peace negotiations. On Thursday the Taliban insurgents executed 15 soldiers. According to the New York Times “The executions followed the death of a high-ranking Taliban commander on Sunday and came just days after local news media reported that several factions of the Taliban had vowed not to attack the Pakistani military.”

Analysts have argued that the executions are evidence that even as militant related violence decreases, individual Taliban members may be unwilling to end terrorist attacks. Though the issue of legitimizing peace negotiations to Taliban members itself will certainly prove part of the challenge in ensuring their success, it is possible that the creation of a political office may help promote that objective.