Between Two Fires
Rouhani walks a tightrope between reformists and conservatives, Obama between neo-cons and leftists
The neoconservatives in the US dismiss Rouhani’s victory and claim that nothing has changed in Iran. In fact, some even go as far as to attribute Rouhani’s victory to a well-orchestrated plan by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps to bring to power a moderate who can help lift some of the sanctions on Iran, while continuing to enrich uranium at the same time. They have criticized President Obama’s efforts to reach out to Iran, and believe that finding a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear dossier is wasting time while the clock is ticking. One does not have to dig to deep on the pages of the analysis offered by the American Enterprise Institute, or watch a few minutes of FOX News to see it.
On the other hand, anti-war liberals and certain interest groups in the US have applauded Rouhani’s victory as if Iran has found its Nelson Mandela, and assert that the United States is now obligated to reach out to Iran and extend an olive branch. Like their neocon foes, they have consistently criticized President Obama’s policy towards Iran—when reaching out to Tehran’s leaders failed, the president formed an international coalition and imposed unprecedented sanctions on the Islamic regime. This crowd, mainly represented by interest groups such as the National Iranian American Council, purposefully fails to acknowledge the Iranian government’s role in bringing about such backbreaking sanctions, and goes out of its way to blame the United States for the humanitarian crisis that such sanctions can cause. Sadly, this crowd has learned a thing or two from the neocon propaganda manual—they have learned how to make up facts and fabricate numbers as it serves their message.
The former fails to recognize the risks involved in attacking Iran and bringing about regime change through brute force, while the latter expects the West, and the US in particular, to bend over backwards and to negotiate with a regime that has killed thousands of its own citizens, is actively waging war in Syria, and has become the largest patron of global terrorism. And I almost forgot: it is secretly pursuing nuclear capabilities.
It is not clear how President Obama is going to deal with a Rouhani administration. And it is even less clear whether Rouhani will have any real power to reach out to the West or to implement meaningful reforms. After all, the supreme leader and his allies in the military/security complex comprise an unrivaled powerhouse in Iran. But what is clear is that the Americans can neither invade Iran, nor can they bestow gold upon its leaders. Talks will take place when the time is ripe, and pressure on Iran will continue as Iran refuses to adhere to the demands of the international community. In the meantime, regardless of what happens, and no matter who is at fault, you can bet that the far right and the radical left will not fail to blame their favorite target: President Obama.